India is set to submit its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) around the start of the U.N. Climate Change Conference COP30 in Brazil on November 10, with indications pointing towards higher targets for energy efficiency improvement, according to sources in the Environment Ministry.
The NDCs represent a country’s renewable energy and emissions reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and preferably 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels. Countries are required to update their NDCs every five years to reflect new climate ambitions.
India last updated its NDCs in 2022, committing to:
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Reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 45% from 2005 levels by 2030.
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Source 50% of its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources.
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Create a carbon sink of at least two billion tonnes by 2030.
It’s important to note that emissions intensity of GDP measures carbon emissions per unit of GDP and does not equate to a reduction in net emissions. As of December 2023, India reported a 33% reduction in emissions intensity between 2005 and 2019. By June 2025, India had achieved at least 50% of its power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources.
NDC 3.0 and 2035 Targets
India’s upcoming submission, referred to as NDC 3.0, is expected to reflect emissions reduction targets for 2035. While only 30 of the roughly 190 signatory countries have submitted their NDCs so far, it is common for nations to submit them just before the annual climate talks.
This year, the Brazil COP presidency has emphasized assessing why countries have struggled to meet their existing NDCs. Even if all commitments are met, current NDCs alone cannot prevent global warming from reaching an average of 3°C by the end of the century, well above Paris Agreement goals.
Global Context
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The European Union has yet to announce a 2035 target but aims for net zero by 2050. Proposed EU amendments suggest a 90% cut in emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 levels.
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Australia updated its NDCs in 2025, aiming to cut emissions 62–70% of 2005 levels by 2035.
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The United States remains outside the Paris Agreement, and China’s NDC updates are still awaited ahead of COP30.
Publicly available numbers from various countries will feed into a UN synthesis report, expected next month, which will quantify the global gap relative to Paris Agreement targets. Major emission reductions may result from bilateral agreements, where developed and developing countries jointly invest in clean energy projects and share the resulting carbon reductions through approved methodologies and carbon credits.
India’s updated NDCs are therefore critical in signaling its climate ambition and contribution to global efforts to achieve a sustainable and low-carbon future.
