ICRA finds 33% of India’s newly commissioned renewable energy capacity faces grid curtailment as transmission lags behind. Here’s the data on India’s ₹5-6 trillion transmission gap, solar curtailment rates, and what it means for renewable energy investors.
The Core Finding: India Is Building Renewable Power Faster Than It Can Move It
India’s renewable energy growth story has a bottleneck most headlines miss: it’s not a shortage of solar panels or wind turbines — it’s a shortage of wires to carry that power to where it’s needed. According to rating agency ICRA, roughly 33% of India’s 54.8 GW of recently commissioned renewable energy capacity is being evacuated through a temporary, stop-gap arrangement called the Temporary General Network Access (T-GNA) route, as of May 2026 — a workaround that exists precisely because permanent transmission infrastructure hasn’t caught up with how fast solar and wind capacity is being added.
The practical result is curtailment — a situation where renewable power plants are technically capable of generating electricity but are forced to reduce or halt output because the grid cannot absorb or transport it. Under the T-GNA route specifically, curtailment during solar generation hours runs as high as 50-60%, according to ICRA’s analysis. In plain terms: for a meaningful chunk of India’s solar capacity, roughly half or more of the electricity it could generate during peak sunlight hours is being wasted, not because the sun isn’t shining, but because the grid can’t take it.
Where the Problem Is Worst
The curtailment issue isn’t evenly spread across India. ICRA’s data shows solar curtailment is most severe in Rajasthan and Gujarat — not coincidentally, two of India’s largest solar-generating states, where capacity has scaled up faster than the transmission network connecting them to demand centers elsewhere in the country. By contrast, southern India sees comparatively limited curtailment, even during solar hours — suggesting the region’s transmission network has kept closer pace with renewable capacity additions, or that demand growth there is better matched to supply.
A ₹5-6 Trillion Bill Is Coming — And a Massive Pipeline Behind It
The scale of what’s needed next is significant. ICRA estimates India’s transmission sector will require investments of ₹5 trillion to ₹6 trillion (roughly $60-72 billion) between FY2027 and FY2032 to support the government’s plan to evacuate power from more than 900 GW of non-fossil fuel generation capacity by 2035-36 — a category that includes an estimated 548 GW of solar and wind capacity alone.
To put that in perspective against where India stands today: the country’s non-fossil power capacity reached 283.46 GW as of March 2026, according to India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy — meaning the 900 GW target by 2035-36 represents more than tripling current non-fossil capacity over roughly a decade. India already hit the 50% non-fossil capacity share milestone in June 2025, five years ahead of its original 2030 target under the Paris Agreement’s Nationally Determined Contributions — a sign of how fast generation capacity has outpaced expectations, and by extension, how far transmission planning now has to catch up.
Beyond the capital required, ICRA points to the physical scale of construction needed: the sector needs to add roughly 20,000 circuit kilometres of transmission lines and 120 GVA of substation capacity every single year to stay on pace with the government’s targets. On top of this, a pipeline of 107 GW of projects across solar, wind, hybrid, hydro, pumped storage, and thermal segments — all of which already have connectivity approvals — are slated for integration into India’s Inter-State Transmission System (ISTS) network between 2026-27 and 2030-31.
Why Transmission Keeps Falling Behind: The Execution Problem
Money alone doesn’t solve this — execution has been the recurring failure point. ICRA’s Ankit Jain, Vice President and Co-Group Head at the agency, has pointed out that delays in commissioning new transmission infrastructure aren’t a hypothetical risk; they’ve already happened repeatedly, and could continue to constrain renewable capacity additions or extend curtailment episodes, directly hurting the financial returns renewable energy developers depend on.
The data on execution delays is stark. Among transmission projects awarded through the Tariff-Based Competitive Bidding (TBCB) route — the central mechanism used to commission major transmission infrastructure — and completed by March 2026:
- Only 12% were finished within their scheduled commissioning date (SCOD)
- The remaining 88% were delayed anywhere from two months to three years
- The median delay was over 10 months
The reasons behind these delays are consistent and structural: land acquisition hurdles, right-of-way (RoW) disputes, and regulatory approval bottlenecks — the same set of challenges that have historically slowed large infrastructure projects across India’s power sector.
Why This Matters Beyond the Power Sector
Grid curtailment isn’t just a technical inconvenience — it directly erodes the economics of renewable energy projects. A solar or wind developer that built a project sized to generate a certain return on investment sees that math deteriorate every time 50-60% of potential solar-hour generation goes unused due to grid constraints. For an investment sector that has already committed tens of billions of dollars into Indian renewable capacity, and is being asked to commit tens of billions more to reach the 900 GW target, unresolved transmission bottlenecks represent a direct risk to project returns — and potentially to the pace of future renewable investment itself if the gap isn’t closed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of India’s renewable energy is being curtailed? About 33% of India’s 54.8 GW of recently commissioned renewable capacity was being evacuated through the temporary T-GNA route as of May 2026, with curtailment during solar hours running as high as 50-60% under this route, according to ICRA.
Which Indian states face the highest solar curtailment? Rajasthan and Gujarat see the most prominent solar curtailment, while southern India experiences comparatively limited curtailment even during solar generation hours.
How much investment does India’s transmission sector need? ICRA estimates ₹5 trillion to ₹6 trillion in transmission investment is required between FY2027 and FY2032 to support evacuation of power from over 900 GW of planned non-fossil fuel capacity by 2035-36.
Why are Indian transmission projects delayed? Land acquisition issues, right-of-way disputes, and regulatory approval delays are the primary causes. Of transmission projects commissioned by March 2026 under the TBCB route, only 12% met their scheduled commissioning date, with a median delay of over 10 months.
What is T-GNA in the Indian power sector? Temporary General Network Access (T-GNA) is a stop-gap mechanism that allows renewable energy generators to evacuate power through the grid on a temporary basis, typically used when permanent, dedicated transmission infrastructure for a project isn’t yet ready.
Data sourced from ICRA’s transmission sector analysis (as of May 2026), with additional context from India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy and Ministry of Power.
